Arroyo Grande, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

800
FXUS66 KLOX 171128
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
328 AM PST Tue Feb 17 2026

.SYNOPSIS...16/1125 PM.

A stormy patter will continue for most of the week. There will be
lulls in the shower activity this afternoon and most of Wednesday.
Afternoon high temperatures will mostly be in the 50s through
Thursday. Most of Friday and the weekend look dry with a warming
trend.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...17/149 AM.

A broad lobe of PVA is currently moving across the area and is
bringing numerous showers to the area in these predawn hours.
Snow levels are near 4500 ft.

There will be a slight lull in the rain action starting around
dawn as NVA moves into the area. Still a slight chc of showers
will remain over LA county while scattered showers continue over
SLO county. In the afternoon a cold 516 dam upper low west of
Portland will move to the east and drag another vigorous trof over
Srn CA. This trof is colder and only has about half the moisture
that Monday`s system. It does have quite a bit of energy courtesy
of a 112kt (130mph) 500mb jet moving over the area in the WSW
flow. This energy and instability created with cold air aloft will
allow for efficient rainfall production (snow production too with
snow levels between 4000 and 4500 ft). Rain will move over the
SLO and SBA counties in the afternoon and there is a chc (30-40
percent) that rain will occur over portions of VTA and LA counties
as well. There may be some brief peaks of sunshine south of PT
Conception, but for the most part it will be mostly cloudy day. A
cool one too with most max temps in the mid to upper 50s with just
a smattering of 60 degree readings.

Strong southerly winds will also arrive with this system driven by
a strong 12+ mb LAX-SFO gradient. advisory level 35 to 45 mph
gusts will develop over SLO and SBA counties in the afternoon and
will xtnd into VTA and LA counties in the early evening. Warning
level gusts of 60 to 65 mph will also occur in the mtns but that
hazard is encompassed in the Winter Storm Warning.

The impulse will drive through the area tonight. It will be
another vigorous frontal passage with steady lgt-mdt rain ahead
of the front and a 15 to 30 minute burst of heavy rain and wind
right along with the front. Rainfall rates will mostly be in the
.33-.50 in/hr range but convective bursts and upslope flow
enhanced areas could see rates approaching 1 in/hr. These rates
and the antecedent rain that fell over the past 24 hours could
produce flooding and debris flows. A flood watch is in effect for
all areas including the burn scar locations from 3pm to 3am for
SLO/SBA counties and 6pm to 6am for VTA/LA counties. Rainfall
totals from late this afternoon to dawn Wednesday will likely be
from .75-1.00 inches csts/vlys and 1 to 2 locally 2.5 inches in
the mtns.

This is a much colder system and snow levels are expected to drop
to around 3000 feet by dawn Wednesday. While much of the storm
will be done by that time, prevailing northwest flow may keep
showers going on the north facing slopes through the morning hours
Wednesday, and this would include the Grapevine on Interstate 5.
During this period 1-3 inches of snow is possible on I-5 and
several more inches over the surrounding mountains. Anyone
planning travel over I-5 (or any mountain roads) tonight or
Wednesday should be prepared for delays and or closures. A winter
storm warning remains in effect for all of the mtns due to the
combination of heavy snow and blowing snow.

The storm will likely blow through to the east by 600 am on
Wednesday. The rest of the day will see slowly clearing skies
with a few post frontal showers that could occur anywhere but will
be mostly likely across SLO county and the nrn mtn slopes
(meaning that snow could continue to fall across the I-5
Grapevine). Max temps will end up 10 to 15 degrees blo normals and
will peak only in the mid to upper 50s across the csts/vlys.

The storm track will remain over Srn CA and another impulse racing
down the CA/NV state line will bring another round of showers to
the area. Rain will likely develop over SLO county late in the
evening or after midnight with a chance developing as far south as
VTA county. Rain will overspread the entire area during the day on
Thursday. Snow levels will be between 3500 and 4000 ft. This storm
is drier and less dynamic that the ones earlier this week and only
a third to a half inch of rain is forecast. Max temps will remain
mired in the mid and upper 50s.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...17/243 AM.

Fairly dry NW flow sets up over the state Thursday night and
friday. While there is a slight chc of predawn showers and a small
but non zero chc of a shower Friday morning, the days should be
dry with skies turning mostly sunny by afternoon. 3 to 6 degrees
of warming will bring most max temps into the lower 60s which is
still 6 to 12 degrees blo normal.

Saturday will be the nicest day of the next 7 as a weak ridge
passes overhead. It will be a mostly sunny and dry day. 3 to 6
degrees of warming will bring max temps up into the 60s.

Another large Gulf of Alaska system moves down and into the PACNW
Sunday and bring moist cyclonic flow to Srn CA once again. The
ensembles are all over the place and the forecast broad brushes
30-40 percent chances of rain across the entire area Sunday
through Tuesday. This reflects mdl confusion and not a three day
rain event. This system does not look like it has that much
moisture to work with and rainfall amounts at this time do not
look that impactful.

&&

.AVIATION...17/0617Z.

At 0522Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer or inversion.

Low to moderate confidence in TAFs. Numerous showers will bring
frequent cig changes between low VFR and MVFR along with
intermittent rain.

KLAX...Low to moderate confidence in TAF. Conditions will mostly
be VFR but there will be ocnl 1 to 2 hour periods of BKN CLDS
between 015 and 025 usually with showers. Good confidence that
there will be no east wind component.

KBUR...Low to moderate confidence in TAF. Conditions will mostly
be VFR but there will be ocnl 1 to 2 hour periods of BKN CLDS
between 015 and 025 usually with showers.

&&

.MARINE...17/125 AM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate confidence in current forecast.
Through Wednesday morning, high confidence in GALE FORCE westerly
winds (aside from a lull in wind speeds this morning). From
Wednesday afternoon through Friday, there is a 60-80% chance of
Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level westerly winds. SCA level seas
will continue through Friday (peaking on Wednesday). For Friday
night and Saturday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining
below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate confidence in
current forecast. Through Wednesday morning, moderate to high
confidence in GALE FORCE westerly winds (except for a lull in wind
speeds this morning). From Wednesday afternoon through Friday,
there is a 30-50% chance of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level
westerly winds. SCA level seas will continue through Thursday
night (peaking on Wednesday). For Friday night and Saturday, high
confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Through this afternoon, moderate
confidence in winds increasing back up to SCA levels. Tonight
through Wednesday morning, there is a 50-70% chance of GALE FORCE
winds. From Wednesday afternoon through Thursday night, high
confidence in SCA level winds. For Friday through Saturday, high
confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels.

&&

.BEACHES...17/121 AM.

A period of very large waves is expected across the coastal
waters through Friday, with surf generally peaking Today and
Wednesday across west facing beaches. High Surf Advisories and
Beach Hazard Statements are in effect for all coasts, please see
the CFWLOX and SRFLOX products for more details.

Elevated high tides as the new moon cycle approaches will coincide
with the arrival of the higher surf and swell. This will bring an
elevated chance of coastal flooding or minor tidal overflows during
the time of the high tides today and especially Wednesday morning.
A coastal flood advisory may be needed should swell guidance
remain consistent, along with moderate to strong onshore winds.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PST
      Wednesday for zones 38-340>349. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Flood Watch in effect from 3 PM PST this afternoon through
      late tonight for zones 38-340>353. (See LAXFFALOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect from 5 PM this afternoon to 6 AM PST
      Wednesday for zones 88-350-352-354>358-362-366>375-548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Flood Watch in effect from this evening through late tonight
      for zones 88-354>358-362-366>383-548. (See LAXFFALOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect until 10 PM PST Friday for zones
      340-346-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Wednesday morning
      for zones 349-350. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Winter Storm Warning remains in effect from 9 PM this evening
      to 9 AM PST Thursday for zones 353-376-378-379-381-382. (See LAXWSWLOX).
     Winter Storm Warning remains in effect until 9 AM PST
      Thursday for zones 377-380. (See LAXWSWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 10 PM PST
      this evening for zone 383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Wind Warning in effect from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM
      PST Wednesday for zone 383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Gale Warning in effect until 8 AM PST Wednesday for zones
      645-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 8 PM PST this evening
      for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect from 8 PM this evening to 9 AM PST
      Wednesday for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...RAT/CMC/KL
BEACHES...RM/CC/RS/RAT
SYNOPSIS...30

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox